rapture_ni
Member
This is taken from a lad I followed over Cheltenham and he landed a fair few smashers...this race is a lotto in my opinion but I will cover his selection as it's nice to have a guided punt rather than just tossing a dart at the list in the paper. NOTE THIS WAS POSTED 3 WEEKS AGO...PRICES AND RUNNERS MAY HAVE CHANGED
The Grand National 2017
the great race lands 3 WEEKS on saturday so it's time to get one in the book.The Cheltenham Gold Cup has been the best trial for the Grand National in recent seasons and it's easy to see why bookmakers have made Minella Rocco 12/1 favourite. His staying on second to Sizing John on Friday was a career best and he looks sure to see out the 4m 2f furlongs at Aintree.
However at twice the price the horse I would rather be on from the Gold Cup is SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1. I described him as a "perennial dog" on Thursday but that was extremely harsh. He's a very good horse in his own right and his 5th in The Gold Cup was also a career best. Turning for home I nearly shat myself because he was travelling better than anything. I've watched the race back about 9 or 10 times now and every time he is the one who catches the eye.
The thing with SAPHIR DU RHEU is he's very one paced - he's not slow and he's not fast, he's just medium paced. The first reaction after watching Friday's race was he was outstayed up the hill but in actual fact I think he just didn't have the turn of foot the classy horses like Sizing John, Minella Rocco, Native River and Djakadam have. He plugged on at his own pace and was only beaten 6 1/4 lengths. The time of the Gold Cup was excellent and there is no reason to think it was nothing other than top class form.
Apart from his price, there are various other reasons why SAPHIR DU RHEU should be backed instead of Minella Rocco.
1) His running style - He likes to be ridden just off the pace, I can see Sam Twiston-Davies sitting handy, probably quite wide to give him a clear sight of his fences. He'll likely never have more than 4 or 5 rivals in front of him and that kind of horse has done well in recent Nationals. Minella Rocco will be held up and will need a lot of luck in running. That's fine if he's 25/1 but at 10 or 12/1 I don't think that is factored into his price.
2) His jumping - For all that I've thought SAPHIR DU RHEU was a disappointing horse over the years, he's always been a superb jumper. He rarely puts a foot wrong and he's just the type who will relish those big Aintree fences. Minella Rocco on the other hand can be a bit sticky at his fences, particularly early in his races. If this happens at Aintree he could find himself further back than ideal.
3) Course form - Before Friday's Gold Cup SAPHIR DU RHEU's best piece of form was his Novice Chase grade 1 success in The Mildmay 2015 (3m1f). He beat a decent field by 15 lengths without coming off the bridle. Horses who have run well over the "normal" Aintree fences have historically taken well to the National fences. Minella Rocco has raced once at Aintree when he fell (horrible fall it was too) when well beaten by Many Clouds earlier this season. SAPHIR DU RHEU has good memories of the place, Minella Rocco not so much.
4) Durability - That Aintree win in 2015 came 3 weeks after SAPHIR DU DHEU finished runner-up in The World Hurdle so we know he has the durability to take in two big races in a short space of time. Minella Rocco has yet to prove that.
5) Age - SAPHIR DU RHEU is an 8 year old, Minella Rocco is 7 and everybody knows 7 year olds have a terrible record in The National. It's not a stat I would give much credence to but nevertheless the fact is 7 year olds have a shocking record in the race.
6) Weight - Both horses will have to carry biggish weights but that hasn't been a problem in recent runnings. Gold Cup also-rans Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds both humped around 11st 6 and 11 st 9 on route to victory in the National. Minella Rocco as it stands has 11 st 6 and SAPHIR DU RHEU 11st 4. Both horses ran off level weights on Friday. Although a 2lbs swing doesn't seem like much - over a stamina sapping 4m 2furlongs it can come in handy enough at the business end.
I think both horses will need good/good to soft ground but that is a high probability. Last year was the first year since 2001 the ground has been officially soft. If that happens again this year we would need to have a rethink but history would tell us it should be no worse than good to soft.
Last year's National was quite an easy race to solve, The Last Samuri stood out like a sore thumb at 33/1 ante post and on the day the soft ground made Rule The World the easiest 50/1 chance we've ever found. This year has been a lot tougher to find a angle but I think we've found one here.
Of course it's not a two horse race and anything that wins the National will need their fair share of luck but I think bookies and the general public have over-reacted to Minella Rocco's flying finish on Friday. It's easy to spot the fast finisher and think he'll love the extra mile test at Aintree but it pays to look at the bigger picture and at the prices SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1 is the bet. I will probably put a couple more horses up on the day when we know the final decs, weights and conditions but for now it's SDR.
Selection:
1 pt ew SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1
The Grand National 2017
the great race lands 3 WEEKS on saturday so it's time to get one in the book.The Cheltenham Gold Cup has been the best trial for the Grand National in recent seasons and it's easy to see why bookmakers have made Minella Rocco 12/1 favourite. His staying on second to Sizing John on Friday was a career best and he looks sure to see out the 4m 2f furlongs at Aintree.
However at twice the price the horse I would rather be on from the Gold Cup is SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1. I described him as a "perennial dog" on Thursday but that was extremely harsh. He's a very good horse in his own right and his 5th in The Gold Cup was also a career best. Turning for home I nearly shat myself because he was travelling better than anything. I've watched the race back about 9 or 10 times now and every time he is the one who catches the eye.
The thing with SAPHIR DU RHEU is he's very one paced - he's not slow and he's not fast, he's just medium paced. The first reaction after watching Friday's race was he was outstayed up the hill but in actual fact I think he just didn't have the turn of foot the classy horses like Sizing John, Minella Rocco, Native River and Djakadam have. He plugged on at his own pace and was only beaten 6 1/4 lengths. The time of the Gold Cup was excellent and there is no reason to think it was nothing other than top class form.
Apart from his price, there are various other reasons why SAPHIR DU RHEU should be backed instead of Minella Rocco.
1) His running style - He likes to be ridden just off the pace, I can see Sam Twiston-Davies sitting handy, probably quite wide to give him a clear sight of his fences. He'll likely never have more than 4 or 5 rivals in front of him and that kind of horse has done well in recent Nationals. Minella Rocco will be held up and will need a lot of luck in running. That's fine if he's 25/1 but at 10 or 12/1 I don't think that is factored into his price.
2) His jumping - For all that I've thought SAPHIR DU RHEU was a disappointing horse over the years, he's always been a superb jumper. He rarely puts a foot wrong and he's just the type who will relish those big Aintree fences. Minella Rocco on the other hand can be a bit sticky at his fences, particularly early in his races. If this happens at Aintree he could find himself further back than ideal.
3) Course form - Before Friday's Gold Cup SAPHIR DU RHEU's best piece of form was his Novice Chase grade 1 success in The Mildmay 2015 (3m1f). He beat a decent field by 15 lengths without coming off the bridle. Horses who have run well over the "normal" Aintree fences have historically taken well to the National fences. Minella Rocco has raced once at Aintree when he fell (horrible fall it was too) when well beaten by Many Clouds earlier this season. SAPHIR DU RHEU has good memories of the place, Minella Rocco not so much.
4) Durability - That Aintree win in 2015 came 3 weeks after SAPHIR DU DHEU finished runner-up in The World Hurdle so we know he has the durability to take in two big races in a short space of time. Minella Rocco has yet to prove that.
5) Age - SAPHIR DU RHEU is an 8 year old, Minella Rocco is 7 and everybody knows 7 year olds have a terrible record in The National. It's not a stat I would give much credence to but nevertheless the fact is 7 year olds have a shocking record in the race.
6) Weight - Both horses will have to carry biggish weights but that hasn't been a problem in recent runnings. Gold Cup also-rans Neptune Collonges and Many Clouds both humped around 11st 6 and 11 st 9 on route to victory in the National. Minella Rocco as it stands has 11 st 6 and SAPHIR DU RHEU 11st 4. Both horses ran off level weights on Friday. Although a 2lbs swing doesn't seem like much - over a stamina sapping 4m 2furlongs it can come in handy enough at the business end.
I think both horses will need good/good to soft ground but that is a high probability. Last year was the first year since 2001 the ground has been officially soft. If that happens again this year we would need to have a rethink but history would tell us it should be no worse than good to soft.
Last year's National was quite an easy race to solve, The Last Samuri stood out like a sore thumb at 33/1 ante post and on the day the soft ground made Rule The World the easiest 50/1 chance we've ever found. This year has been a lot tougher to find a angle but I think we've found one here.
Of course it's not a two horse race and anything that wins the National will need their fair share of luck but I think bookies and the general public have over-reacted to Minella Rocco's flying finish on Friday. It's easy to spot the fast finisher and think he'll love the extra mile test at Aintree but it pays to look at the bigger picture and at the prices SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1 is the bet. I will probably put a couple more horses up on the day when we know the final decs, weights and conditions but for now it's SDR.
Selection:
1 pt ew SAPHIR DU RHEU 25/1