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StrawDog

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
If you used accurate proven facts in the early days of this thread instead of exagerating figures like suggesting 1.3 million people in this country will die from this then I wouldn't have used the word Scaremongering but you kept on posting things like this.



I don't doubt you are spending a lot of time reading about this, that is fine, but when you post statements like above and then someone disputes it you should be able to prove with official sources of evidence. ie in the above post you are saying every person in the UK will get covid-19, where is your evidence to back that up?
you spelt exaggerating wrong, any way,..and my facts, they were proven from the beginning, numbers from your friend Chris Whitty... wanted to infect 80% of the population....then when you start number crunching is when it can't sink in.....it will though.....give it time mate.

There are 66 million people in this country. There is no ‘flu vaccine’ for corona virus and it has a death rate of 2% at least. 2% of 66 million is 1.3 million. Let that sink in. If this spreads 1.3 million people are potentially dead. Now do you understand the panic?

and i stand by the above....just calculations.....which we don't want to see. I didn't want to see 1 person dead, but then again you did tell me to run for government...
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
We now know this cannot be the case.
The death rate isn't 2%
If you look at Italy 70,000 cases and 7000 dead makes it look like 10% death rate but this isn't true neither.
Italy has had millions of infections and 7000 deaths. It has found 70,000 positives from the millions.
And still 7000 deaths.
Uk has had a minimum of 400,000 cases and 485 deaths.
That's not 1%, it's slightly over 0.1%
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
I'm unsure of what you mean
4.8% of 9000 cases is 485 deaths you mean?
Yes these figures are correct, mathematically, which is all a calculator can do.
This does NOT mean 485 from 9000 have died, it means 485 have died in total from everyone who has had it, they only know about 9000.
It may be 485 from twenty million
It may be 485 from ten million
It's more likely to be less than this, all the 9000 found cannot possibly be the only 9000 that have caught it, these are a fraction.
What the real number is is imposible to say but it's estimated that thousands had already had it in UK before death number 1
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
That's a good way of looking at it...hope it is... (y)
It is, this is what he meant by herd immunity and the 50 million figure on day one.
Everyone sh!t their chuddies , me included.
Until you look closely at the numbers.
100 cases and one death doesn't mean one from a hundred.
It means 100 people were I'll enough to ring 111 and get tested. At least five or ten times that must have had it for those 100 to ring up.
When we got to 500 cases and 5 deaths, the actual cases must have been over 5000 - a lot of people have no symptoms - only those with breathing problems are counted when they get to hospital, if they have a temp and a cough but otherwise ok they aren't counted but they've still had it, which means the vast majority who have actually had/have it, have no idea, this is how it spreads:
Person 1 gets it but has no idea
He passes it to persons 2, 3 and 4
2 feels a bit off so he self isolates, 3 and 4 have no idea so they spread it to 5,6,7,8,9 and 10, only one or two of these feels under the weather but the other four carry on spreading it unaware until it gets to someone with a faulty heart/lung problem/immune problem and they get hospitalised. ..one person in hospital but maybe 10 or more infected people for the virus to achieve this.
If it made everyone sick it would be easier to control, the fact it uses people as carriers without symptoms makes it a pain in the arse to track
 

StrawDog

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
Thanks mate,

Personally I don't agree on "herd immunity" not at all, we should have been, in my eyes, doing what we are doing now.

I guess once it's over (hopefully sooner than later) then questions can be asked on "how we controlled/managed it" of course these opinions are my own and not of management...! lol

Keep safe..(y)
 

grog68

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
you spelt exaggerating wrong, any way,..and my facts, they were proven from the beginning, numbers from your friend Chris Whitty... wanted to infect 80% of the population....then when you start number crunching is when it can't sink in.....it will though.....give it time mate.

There are 66 million people in this country. There is no ‘flu vaccine’ for corona virus and it has a death rate of 2% at least. 2% of 66 million is 1.3 million. Let that sink in. If this spreads 1.3 million people are potentially dead. Now do you understand the panic?

and i stand by the above....just calculations.....which we don't want to see. I didn't want to see 1 person dead, but then again you did tell me to run for government...
Again you are assuming 100% of the population will get it and basing your calculations on figures of KNOWN cases, we are only testing those in hospital at the moment so the 9000 cases does not incliude the thousands who have had it mildly and there for not been tested. No country is testing everybody, so all death rates as a percentage look higher as they are only compared to the known cases not the actual cases.

As for my spelling, this proves to me that you know you are wrong and the only way you can respond with an arguement is by being petty and picking on my spelling.
 

basejumper

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
There are 66 million people in this country. There is no ‘flu vaccine’ for corona virus and it has a death rate of 2% at least. 2% of 66 million is 1.3 million. Let that sink in. If this spreads 1.3 million people are potentially dead. Now do you understand the panic?

and i stand by the above....just calculations.....which we don't want to see. I didn't want to see 1 person dead, but then again you did tell me to run for government...
Let this sink in. China has 1.386 billion people with 3,287 deaths and is in total control of the virus.
 

grog68

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
I'm not lowering my self to your level. Stay safe. (y)
you have already gone lower than anyone by criticising my spelling unnecessarily, and now you can't admit you have calculated it wrong.

I admit publically this is far bigger than I expected, yes it scares me, and you was right about the fact it's going to hit us hard, it's about time you did the same and admited some of the figures you have quoted are incorrect.
 

StrawDog

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
haha! lower than anyone... selling masks, my family...dude....get a grip. I know it's come as a shock having to actual hold your hands up in there air, and go, **** man, he was right, it's hard having to admit to something...I understand. Don't feel bad. other people are like you.

Peace.
 

grog68

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
haha! lower than anyone... selling masks, my family...dude....get a grip. I know it's come as a shock having to actual hold your hands up in there air, and go, **** man, he was right, it's hard having to admit to something...I understand. Don't feel bad. other people are like you.

Peace.
I'm not the only one proving your figures are incorrect yet you still wont admit it. I don't see you criticising others when they quote figures that dispute what you have said. Man up and admit your wrong rather than trying to insult your way out.
 

grog68

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
Come back when the death rate reaches 5K for the UK...then we can discuss figures.....
we are expecting death rates to surpass thar figure, estimated 20,000, no where near the 1.3 million you are stating. There is a massive differerence between the two.

anyway I am going quite now as I don't have time to sit here and argue with someone like you but have to go and help at the foodbank to make sure those that need help get it.

Looking forward to chatting later.
 

basejumper

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
Come back when the death rate reaches 5K for the UK...then we can discuss figures.....
Can we discuss these figures first then?
Chinas population is 1.36 billion with 3,287 deaths. 2% of 1.36 billion is 277,200. 277,200 didn't die but 3,287 did with no new deaths. So we have a discrepency of 273,913. How come :unsure:
 

channelking

TK Veteran
Really dont understand and see the pointless arguing over the figures.

We know figures of deaths with vary from country to country and vast majority will survive.

Proportion of the population will die whether that is 1% or even less.

So all this arguing over what the figures will be eventually is a bit pointless atm.
 
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