Remind me not to pop over for a cup of tea mate!!!
I dont know how accurate these figures are, but it's a channel on my IPTV
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- Thread starter StrawDog
- Start date
Remind me not to pop over for a cup of tea mate!!!
I dont know how accurate these figures are, but it's a channel on my IPTV
pabloescaban
VIP Member
The box of teabags and the plastic milk bottles get wiped, not individual teabags 
I've been keeping my eye on Sweden, same size population as New York State and Sweden have no real restrictions in place
NY has had ten times as many deaths up to now
I've been keeping my eye on Sweden, same size population as New York State and Sweden have no real restrictions in place
NY has had ten times as many deaths up to now
channelking
Member
Im still really surprised in countries bordering China like Pakistan and India the death toll isnt higher.
Same for countries in Africa.
bazcfc1
VIP Member
Seen it on a couple of providers makes you wonder if accurate or not
channelking
Member
Figures are hard to measure at this point.
US death toll will exceed that of Italy's this week.
US death toll will exceed that of Italy's this week.
rs500nutter
TK Veteran
Yeah simply aint been enough tests carried out to have a true accuracy margin from those infected and the number of deaths etc
pabloescaban
VIP Member
No, the recovery figures look alarming but they're not, there's no way of collecting accurate information on people who have tested positive but not subsequently died, these are in that 40,000 bracket above, 99% of them would have fecked off home as soon as they felt better but aren't considered 'recovered' because no one is 100% certain of that.
The 51,000 and 5,000 figures make it look like a 10% death rate but this isn't true neither. We only know about the 51,000 as they have tested positive, there will be a hundred people for each one of these so probably over half a million and by some estimates, 25% of the population has had/have it without knowing about it.
When we get to 80% we will have reached 'herd immunity'
Thanks for that
pabloescaban
VIP Member
Its still spreading even with the lockdown but at a much lower rate
Without the lockdown it's estimated that in two weeks, one person could infect up to 50,000 people (EG you pass it to 3, they all pass it to 3, and so on)
With the lockdown, that same person in the same 2 weeks will infect around 450.
My UNOFFICIAL guestimate is that herd immunity will come around mid July, hopefully some of the restrictions will be lifted when we get to around 50%, which my UNOFFICIAL estimate is mid to late May.
I'm not a mathematician, as you know, but I like to play around with numbers and read between the lines.
No one has a clue how were going to get out of this, no 'exit strategy' so to speak but I think it will be gradual.
Sports events will start up but behind closed doors, shops selling non essential items, like B&Q and department stores, clothes shops etc will open but social distancing strictly enforced, by then, widespread testing may be up and running and some kind of green card scheme may be used, vulnerable people who have not had it will probably be sidelined for a long time yet. Construction sites will probably reopen as will car manufacturing and maybe airports etc but again, testing will need to be in place.
People keep saying 'when it's all over...' - that won't be for a long time yet, the vaccine may take a year, so next spring and even then it's a herculean task to vaccinate 66 million people
Without the lockdown it's estimated that in two weeks, one person could infect up to 50,000 people (EG you pass it to 3, they all pass it to 3, and so on)
With the lockdown, that same person in the same 2 weeks will infect around 450.
My UNOFFICIAL guestimate is that herd immunity will come around mid July, hopefully some of the restrictions will be lifted when we get to around 50%, which my UNOFFICIAL estimate is mid to late May.
I'm not a mathematician, as you know, but I like to play around with numbers and read between the lines.
No one has a clue how were going to get out of this, no 'exit strategy' so to speak but I think it will be gradual.
Sports events will start up but behind closed doors, shops selling non essential items, like B&Q and department stores, clothes shops etc will open but social distancing strictly enforced, by then, widespread testing may be up and running and some kind of green card scheme may be used, vulnerable people who have not had it will probably be sidelined for a long time yet. Construction sites will probably reopen as will car manufacturing and maybe airports etc but again, testing will need to be in place.
People keep saying 'when it's all over...' - that won't be for a long time yet, the vaccine may take a year, so next spring and even then it's a herculean task to vaccinate 66 million people
channelking
Member
They will still be strict measures in place for the next year no doubt. But things will steadily get back to normal over the coming months. By normal i mean less stricter restrictions that are in place now.
Some estimate at least 2 years for a complete cure is available worldwide.
Some estimate at least 2 years for a complete cure is available worldwide.
pabloescaban
VIP Member
Unfortunately herd immunity is the only option for every country, there's no cure, no treatment and no vaccine.
Unless it can be completely stamped out (impossible) then slowing it down is the only option, herd immunity will still occur but over a much longer period of time.
If we've got/had a quarter of the country infected already and got 8000 deaths then it follows that around 20-30 thousand may die before we reach HI, this figure is what they said from weeks ago.
Without social distancing and other measures, millions would be infected at once and hundreds of thousands would die at home due to ICU's being swamped
Unless it can be completely stamped out (impossible) then slowing it down is the only option, herd immunity will still occur but over a much longer period of time.
If we've got/had a quarter of the country infected already and got 8000 deaths then it follows that around 20-30 thousand may die before we reach HI, this figure is what they said from weeks ago.
Without social distancing and other measures, millions would be infected at once and hundreds of thousands would die at home due to ICU's being swamped
StrawDog
TK Veteran
Just watching the news, Still trying to say that some one in an ICU is still awake, and he's just having oxygen, like really? I don't think so, they have to be very sick....Don't like Boris, But wouldn't wish this on anyone, I hope he pulls through as having our PM down isn't good for the well being of the nation.
