Covid-19 the second wave

worth noting that scotland have a different reporting standard than england.

england include all deaths where COVID is mentioned on the death certificate as a probable factor.

scotland only includes deaths were a positive test has occured.

you can see the effect of their under-reporting here:

View attachment 52305

so when we say other countries are x or y we should be careful not to compare apples to oranges whilst looking at prices in yen and prices in pounds.
A bloke at my pals works said his aunty had died from terminal cancer and covid was mentioned on the death certificate. There's been rumours flying around since the start about peoples death certificates saying covid when it wasn't.
 
A bloke at my pals works said his aunty had died from terminal cancer and covid was mentioned on the death certificate. There's been rumours flying around since the start about peoples death certificates saying covid when it wasn't.
I'm 99% certain to start with they wasn't doing autopsy until a postmortem was done in Italy
 
Doesn't it just. The statistics will reflect each country's leadership's performance when it's all over and whatever bull and bluster people want to use to try to twist things, history will show that certain Governments killed more of their people.

Spain, Italy and a few others haven't added care home deaths or deaths at home whereas England has deaths in all settings.
Spain and/or Italy could have higher totals when it's all sorted out.
Trying to politicise the virus is crass but that hadn't stopped you in the past.
Scotland 5%
Wales 6%
NI 4%
These are BAME populations of uk countries.
As you know BAME are far more likely to die from the virus.
London, which has a population not far off the above three countries combined has a BAME population of 40%
 
Trying to politicise the virus is crass but that hadn't stopped you in the past.

We live in a country where a political party is democratically elected to lead and Govern us, to say how that party chooses to steer the nation through a worldwide pandemic is not political is quite a strange view to take, but one I've heard a few times lately from people who will do anything to avoid criticising Boris Johnson.

And from someone who dismissed those who sadly lose their lives to coronavirus as "most of them probably would have died anyway," I don't think it measures quite on the scale of crass.
 
Criticising politicians is fine.
Using the deaths of the general public to try to bolster a floundering marginal political movement is crass.
Boris has made a bollocks of many things.
I have a feeling it would have been ten times as bad had Diane Abbot been in charge and about a hundred times worse had Corbyn been in charge.
Starmer has largely agreed with everything BJ has done up to now. I see he's sacked his closest rival under some Trumped up anti semitic bullsquirt excuse....must be expecting a challenge for supremacy quite soon
 
Boris has made a bollocks of many things.
I have a feeling it would have been ten times as bad had Diane Abbot been in charge and about a hundred times worse had Corbyn been in charge.

Working by the same logic, Ian Huntley wasn't so bad because imagine if Ian Brady had been caretaker at that school.
 
Boris fanboys seem to really like sticking up for that tool at any cost.

Don't belong to any party as most politicians are snakes and weasels apart from a couple who stand up for those who can't speak up for themselves.

Politics is a bloody vile despicable game of power and money at any cost.

Getting really old by constantly saying politics are being brought in. Nothing to do with damn politics but incompetence of a evil c*nt that we have for a PM.
 
Spain, Italy and a few others haven't added care home deaths or deaths at home whereas England has deaths in all settings.

england only records hospital deaths also

i've no problems with politicising our response to the virus.

we are seeing key liberties being eroded by the government - the right to trial by jury is being suspended for example - and i think they are ripe to be criticised for any decisions made.

there are nonsense issues like the pantomime reaction to cummings, but otherwise, scrutiny is good.

so glad that starmer is in charge of labour. he really holds johnson to account and has a good eye for detail - just what we need in an opposition leader.

lockdown is just a running joke now though isnt it. the people have spoken.

the BLM protests, the statue protests, liverpool winning the league and a hot day with a few million people on paid leave and it's done. think we set a poor precedent when we had health officials and politicians peddling the line that protests were ok as long as the cause was just enough.

i was always of the opinion that periodic lockdowns would probably happen. i'm resigned to that being likely this year. good luck enforcing it, however.

i don't think there will be the political will for it on a similar scale. i agree that an earlier lockdown would have been largely pointless, its clear that once people have had enough compliance will be impossible to impose. whilst the levels where low it was right to keep the country open. i do believe they got the timing somewhat right and for the correct reason.

we're still right in the middle of this though. who knows what we're going to think when we look back. and the problem - as always - is going to be that we just don't know what the counterfactual would have been

if we locked in early would there have been an increase in non-covid excess deaths caused by the NHS not treating non covid patients, would poverty have increased, would tolerance for lockdown ended earlier whilst we were in peak? impossible to know. so many variables.
 
Nothing to do with damn politics but incompetence of a evil c*nt that we have for a PM.

Nothing to do with politics but incompetence of the person we democratically elected to be our primeminster. Damn our idiocy in voting for such a scallywag, we could have picked one if those nice Labour millionaires instead
 
Labour, liberals etc all are scum. This new leader of labour ain't no better. Just a Tory disguised as a labour leader.

The moron scumbag that is the PM which yes the public put in power needs to be held to account in the most serious circumstances possible.

To be proud of having the highest death toll in Europe says it all.about him and his crew.
 
If we were slightly lower than Spain or Italy does that mean he would get a medal?

Does Spain and Italy have similar BAME populations as UK?

Are their cities bigger or smaller than London?

Do they have more or less people than England that regularly travel worldwide which is how it started?
 
Oh right so being part of the BAME population and having higher death rate than white people in the country is the fault of BAME population and not failure of the government and that clown leading it?

Oh my bad I will be dead soon enough then as I belong to the BAME population.
 
Working by the same logic, Ian Huntley wasn't so bad because imagine if Ian Brady had been caretaker at that school.
Totally crass. No change there.
Oh right so being part of the BAME population and having higher death rate than white people in the country is the fault of BAME population and not failure of the government and that clown leading it?

Oh my bad I will be dead soon enough then as I belong to the BAME population.

WTF are you drinking?
Covid kills more BAME than white people.
If London is 40% BAME and Cardiff is 1% BAME, see if you can hazzard a guess as to which city will have more covid deaths
 
I don't drink thank you very much.

Yes BAME are killed more by the virus.

But the government should be protecting this group knowing what they know but they haven't and are happy to let such people who are from the BAME die.

You can protect Boris and co as much as you want. Doesn't change the fact the leader of the country is a notorious racist and islamaphobe, then to him and his cronies protecting the BAME population is at the bottom of the list of their agenda.
 
I don't drink thank you very much.

Yes BAME are killed more by the virus.

But the government should be protecting this group knowing what they know but they haven't and are happy to let such people who are from the BAME die.

I didn't know this section of society was more at risk until the government told me.
They didn't tell me personally, they told everyone at the same time.
But it didn't register with tens of thousands of them who decided this would be the perfect time to meet up with as many people as possible to tear down statues that have been there 200 years over the death of someone they've never met who lived 5000 miles away.
And then go home and complain online that the government haven't done enough to protect them. Weird that innit?
 
the BAME disparity is hella interesting.

indians and pakistanis have a highe rmortality rate than do british whites and blacks the highest rate of all.

chinese and mixed race have lower mortality rates.

seems unlikely the disparities are biological in nature - there is differences between groups with little genetic diversity - between white british and white irish or indian and pakistani.

but it doesn't seem to be completely economic either. if it was tracking income then, yes we would expect chinese and mixed race people to have lower mortailty rates than white britons as they earn more than white britions on average. but indians massively outperform pakistani and bangladeshi people economically yet have higher mortality rates. blacks do worst of all, but not economically

might culture also play a role: maybe the types of jobs being done - so is the high earnings yet high mortality rate for indians reflecting choices such as entering the medical profession? do families from those backgrounds have closer contact - so do grandparents live within the community or home to a greater extent than white grandparents and families? do the jobs taken by different groups have the same exposure to viral load? i just don't know enough and to be honest just asking some of these questions, much less answering them is going to be awkward in the current environment. i'm sure a report into this has been redacted before publishing?


if it is down to the kinds of jobs then the % of BAME in a country won't matter when making comparisons as someone will be doing those jobs.

Ok so scanned the gov document on this effect and it's very interesting to note that buried in the 89 page government report is a reference to a study that attempted to account for comorbidities such as age, diabetes, heart disease etc [the main report does not take this into account]

here are their results:

More admissions to hospital are seen in the Black and Minority Ethnic group in this cohort, compared with
that expected from the population proportion at a country level. Analysis at a Trust/Healthboard level is
well developed and will characterise any selection bias that exists in this cohort
.
More admissions to HDU/ITU are seen in the Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) group, compared
to the White ethnic group. These are explained by differences in patient characteristics such as comorbidity.

No difference in HDU/ICU admission is seen after adjusting for patient characteristics.

The White ethnic group has higher mortality than the BAME group.

In robust matched models (propensity-score matched), no excess mortality is seen in the BAME group.

In conclusion, Black and Minority Ethnic individuals might be more likely to be admitted to hospital with
COVID-19. BAME groups are more likely to be admitted to HDU/ICU. When patient characteristics are
taken into account, no excess HDU/ICU admissions or deaths are seen in the BAME group

it makes sense but then begs the question why are the comorbidities so high amongst those groups.
 
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