Covid-19 the second wave

These lockdowns are utterly pointless if the moronic Tory government open the floodgates to socialising again at the end of it. I'm fully expecting the loveable buffoon steering our country through/further into this mess to come up with some stupid idea to get people together to celebrate Christmas and the New Year, then we'll see the effects a couple of months after like we are with his ridiculous "Eat out to help out" idea.
 
They were a good idea but not now. Its no coincidence that kids back to school lead to a huge rise in cases.
Look back at Italy, when they were at their peak it was youth working in Milan then bringing it back home similar to our school kids most A symptomatic.

I sound like a stuck record now, we need to protect people of age, the vulnerable and hospital workers not a class of 6 year old germ machines. Sending kids home with a cough and isolating the class is utter nutsack stuff.
A teacher I know recently said she noticed a huge downfall of non Covid coughs colds in school due to wash hands more routines been enforced.
 
Boris Johnson's lockdowns work like the pipe's leaking, he wraps newspaper round it for a few months, then he takes all the newspaper off and increases the water pressure, then when he gets wet decides to wrap newspaper around the pipe again. And it's all the paperboy's fault.
 
went over to the canaries last week. Had to fill all forms in online, print QR codes when we landed the scanned the codes had to walk through temperature cameras once past border. later on that day we was walking around on the streets and I got stopped by police and told to put on my mask. every single person wears a mask on the street, they can only be removed when on the beach or eating food.

when we arrived back in UK all I had to do was show them a QR code on my phone to 'prove' we had filled in gov documents, nothing was scanned and no temperature taken. oh and we have to isolate for 14 days but we can get public transport home.

if you think the numbers are bad in Spain, give it a month and they will be 5 times that here
 
The figures make no sense at all.
Liverpool = 500 cases per 100,000 people.
Surely this means 500 positive tests from the total number of tests done?

If Cornwall did 800 tests in a week and found 80 cases this is classed as 'low' even though 10% of the tests come back positive.

The 500 positives in one area might be from 350,000 tests.

They should base the figures on how many tests were carried out
 
This three tier system will also flop and fail. No idea how they can implement it without people continuously ignoring what's being implemented.
 
I blame all those Cornish people!! Coming out at night, eating Pastys, drinking Scrumpy and singing sea shanties together!!
 
What kills me is, the government make the half hearted willy nilly rules like the virus knows times and places.

its a very very simple equation, the more we gather the more it travels. The moment we don't the numbers nose dive. But more worrying, the numbers are a load of rubbish.
How many with no symptoms have had or will get it and never get tested?, I'd say 10's of millions. Were 8 months in and testing is still a laugh.

You cannot count the unknown
 
What kills me is, the government make the half hearted willy nilly rules like the virus knows times and places.

its a very very simple equation, the more we gather the more it travels. The moment we don't the numbers nose dive. But more worrying, the numbers are a load of rubbish.
How many with no symptoms have had or will get it and never get tested?, I'd say 10's of millions. Were 8 months in and testing is still a laugh.

You cannot count the unknown
It's called herd immunity by stealth.
They are slowing it down every couple of months with these 'lockdowns' then freeing everyone so it proliferates again then slowing it again so as not to overwhelm the NHS.
There will never be a vaccine IMO.
Once another 10 or 20 million have had it they can knock the lockdowns on the head as it will struggle to spread naturally.
Once this second wave starts to ease, probably around Christmas, a fortnight of opening up should see us locked down until April then hopefully by next autumn only partial lockdowns here and there as most will be immune by then
 
And what if we only gain temp immunity and it becomes yearly/seasonal like the common cold or a like a strain of flu?.

We're I live we've lots been hit with an outbreak of flu. I know quite a few people in bed with it and have tested negative for Corona's.

A friend of mine is seriously rough with it he's been in bed a week now, he tested negative
 
If immunity doesn't last any length of time we'll have to put up with it like all the other thousands of incurable diseases.

There will be lots of different ways of combating it in the future if it's incurable or no vaccine.
There will have to be instant tests mass produced which you have to have before entering a building.
Air circulation systems will be mandatory in public buildings to minimise transmission.

Top of the range masks and other PPE will have to be available to everyone and have to be worn in public.

There's hundreds of things could be done instead of wasting billions paying people to stay in bed for six months at a time
 
I read a study saying antibodies for SARS start to slowly decline after the 3 year mark but are still present in people today who caught it in 2003 and survived so we should get similar results with SARS 2 COVID-19.
the only other thing is if the virus mutates but from what I have read when this happens the virus generally becomes weaker
 
Normal flu virus transfer rate is 1.3-1.4 so on average if I had flu 1.3-1.4 would contract it from me.
By the time this has been passed ten fold I will have infected roughly 14-15 people

Covid is highly Contagious if I had Covid the average transfer rate is 3 so if I were to go about daily life by the time it had been transferred 10 times (first passes it to another then that person passes it on) it will have infected 56,000.
This is why the Govs asking to stay apart
 
Normal flu virus transfer rate is 1.3-1.4 so on average if I had flu 1.3-1.4 would contract it from me.
By the time this has been passed ten fold I will have infected roughly 14-15 people

Covid is highly Contagious if I had Covid the average transfer rate is 3 so if I were to go about daily life by the time it had been transferred 10 times (first passes it to another then that person passes it on) it will have infected 56,000.
This is why the Govs asking to stay apart
Your maths are flawed.
Normal flu 1.3
Covid is 3

Ten times infection isn't 15 compared to 56k
Left unchecked or curtailed both will be similar
3 = 56k
1.4 will be around half that about 27k
 
I got those figures from a professor of infections.
If you use a calculator and times 1.3 x 1.3 10 times you end up roughly with 14
Were as 3 x 3 x 3 10 times 59,000 this is the same math they use for the R.
Do it for 0.9 and you end up with 0.3 this is why they aim for under 1 as the magic number
 
Chemist where I go for mine and missus medication has had to shut 2 people has been in with covid so got to fcuk around trying to get new repeat prescriptions done and find another chemist local to us Propper p*SS take Dr's won't allow me to pick them up they have to be electronically sent. Have we ever hit the magic number of been under 1
 
Yeah pretty sure we have hit below 1 but not for long due to rugrats and students all going back and certain pubs not giving a flyer.

I get any meds sent electronically to the Chemist inside a large Tesco's. What will happen to track and trace when someone's been in a supermarket with Covid?,
 
The figures make no sense at all.
Liverpool = 500 cases per 100,000 people.
Surely this means 500 positive tests from the total number of tests done?

If Cornwall did 800 tests in a week and found 80 cases this is classed as 'low' even though 10% of the tests come back positive.

The 500 positives in one area might be from 350,000 tests.

They should base the figures on how many tests were carried out
If 500 positives came from 350k tests then it would be impossible for the infection rate for the whole area to be 500 per 100k.

Testing is going to be higher in places with higher infection rates as symptomatic people and people in contact with positive tests will form the majority of non key worker tests.

There's no perfect way of estimating infection rates, but the current measure isn't as outlandish as you make out.

actual positive tests are the tip of iceberg.

It could be that other modeling is used in reaching the per 100k number
 
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