Covid-19 the second wave

liamt

TK Veteran
Forum Supporter
There are government reports showing that COVID tests can return false positives and false negatives.
https://assets.publishing.service.g...9_Impact_of_false_positives_and_negatives.pdf
Recent research into Covid-19 infection rates in England revealed that up to 80% who tested positive were asymptomatic.
Hi panorama just had a quick scan though that report and from what I can make out in re to false positives (tested positive but don't have virus) from 2004-2019 an external study found that their was an average false positive rate of 2.3% when testing for viruses

from today their has been 19,293,329 covid-19 tests carried out in the UK with 365,174 positive cases that means that out of the people tested 1.89 % of them tested positive for the virus.
 

teddybloat

TK Veteran
Given that only 0.05% of the population have the virus that means if you are a symptomatic and decide to have the test and it comes back positive you are 2.6x more likely to have simply had a false positive than have the virus.
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
I have a headache but I'm not sure its covid, I'd say its a 6.4% probability of trying to work out the percentages of it being something else 0.0014% of the time except when I stand on one leg and face due South.
 

loncell

Registered
Were at the point were were keeping our distances but slowly trying to get some normality.
Now we know the affect on the young, old, and vulnerable rather than these lockdowns I think we should be mass testing for anti bodies. This way we will know who's had it and if needed donate blood etc to aid a vaccine trials.

I feel total lockdowns wont help it's no more than a token gesture. Just go shopping or for a pint that says it all. I'd like bet 10's of millions have already had it unknowingly.
Knowing who's had it so far down the line should be more important to all these failed tracing 6 in a bubble sh#t
 

channelking

TK Veteran
My young niece was found to have the virus and was sent home from school. Has to quarantine at home now for 14 days. Her parents also have been to get tested.

Same with one of my mates son he was told to go home as he became ill at school and has to quarantine also same thing now with his parents.

Makes you wonder how safe school really is if this is happening to kids and they are bringing it home. I am sure its happening to many kids across the country.

But bojo and cronies know whats best I guess :sneaky:
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
What do you suggest as an alternative?
Close the education system down again and furlough 20 million parents again?

Governments don't have money apart from what they extract from the public.
You, me and everyone else pay the furlough money and will be paying it off for 20 years as it stands now.
If they bring in draconian measures again your neice/nephews will be paying it back for their entire lifetimes
 

bazcfc1

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
My 11yr old is waiting on tests results 3 teachers who teaches him in school have had to be tested.
Started with cough high temp and got sent home from school last Friday and still waiting on results now and my other two kids arnt allowed into school till results comes back.
No matter what age group or where you are the risk is always going to be there.
My nice school has had 2 cases in different year groups and school has stayed open but yet in surrounding areas schools has completely closed.
Pablo is right in what he's saying can't keep going round in circles with furlough ect as it's done no good to the industries where people have to work for a living
 

channelking

TK Veteran
I dont have a magic solution I am afraid. Just like there likely wont ever be a vaccine despite numerous claims its months away.

I am just thinking about health of kids and parents and how everything is rapidly increasing once again.

I agree normalisation has to happen gradually but question is if things start getting worse again like they are now what do you do. Blindly ignore it for the sake of the economy which is going down the s*it hole?

Trust me I know how hard its even to get by even more so with this BS year. With households struggling to make ends meat as it is, you can sure as hell guarantee it will only get worse for those households sadly.
 

pabloescaban

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
Covid is rarely serious in children.
It's rarely serious in adults but even less so in kids
The vulnerable should take extra precautions.
Everyone else should just carry on with life as normal, taking sensible precautions to avoid getting it or spreading it.
Vaccine may be years away yet or may never materialise - covid could be like lots of other human conditions we have to live with forever, common cold, cancer, dementia and a thousand others, we cant dismantle society each time someone coughs.
Immunity doesn't look like it's permanent neither.
Some dude in China has had it twice
 

loncell

Registered
We've tried lockdown, if doesn't work for the economy. As soon as we came out ?, cases rose.
Shield the vulnerable, mask up, wash hands, social distance all to the best of our capabilities and let's ride it like a bitch from hell.
 

bazcfc1

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
We've tried lockdown, if doesn't work for the economy. As soon as we came out ?, cases rose.
Shield the vulnerable, mask up, wash hands, social distance all to the best of our capabilities and let's ride it like a bitch from hell.
Don't know if your local town centre supermarkets ect are like ours where I'm from but people going about normal every day things no masks no social distancing and freely been aloud to walk round supermarkets ect without staff/security not saying a word even tho clear signs up.

I know it can't be policed but fcuk me the ones with no masks ect will be the the ones putting everyone else at risk and crying like bitches if they contract it and put more strain on our health professionals imo.

I had a disagreement with a man and woman other week over facemasks even tho kids don't have to wear them I make my kids wear them when we go any where tell me I was wrong and that my kids shouldn't wear one but guess what the couple want wearing one ffs lol
 

loncell

Registered
The lions out the cage and it's impossible to put back in. I think the problem is, in over 90% of contracted cases people show few or little signs then throw in A symptomatic people.

Take me for instance, the wife's had it (tested for anti bodies for work) so the chances are very high that I've had it but bar the odd day feeling slightly off nothing.


So the government are asking over 90% of the population to distance when they full well know a head cold will be worse.
We should put a our efforts into care homes, looking after the vunrable and the elderly, hospitals anyone who is likely to suffer badly from it and anyone who looks after those or work in that sector.

It's no good testing kids and bubbles the horse has bolted the gate and the vast majority know it won't affect them.
That's the nature of some people of today.

"All for one !!,
F##k your m8's"
 

bazcfc1

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
The lions out the cage and it's impossible to put back in. I think the problem is, in over 90% of contracted cases people show few or little signs then throw in A symptomatic people.

Take me for instance, the wife's had it (tested for anti bodies for work) so the chances are very high that I've had it but bar the odd day feeling slightly off nothing.


So the government are asking over 90% of the population to distance when they full well know a head cold will be worse.
We should put a our efforts into care homes, looking after the vunrable and the elderly, hospitals anyone who is likely to suffer badly from it and anyone who looks after those or work in that sector.

It's no good testing kids and bubbles the horse has bolted the gate and the vast majority know it won't affect them.
That's the nature of some people of today.

"All for one !!,
F##k your m8's"
Thats how it is now days mate
 

loncell

Registered
A friend's son had a cough at school, the whole class was sent home he's now self isolating on his Xbox.
Let's have right hey ffs,

So what's the point of going back ?, either go back all in or all out. These kids ain't stupid, some have degrees in Police Law a little Covid cough ?, now let's see ......double maths ? (Clears throat)
 

bazcfc1

VIP Member
Forum Supporter
A friend's son had a cough at school, the whole class was sent home he's now self isolating on his Xbox.
Let's have right hey ffs,

So what's the point of going back ?, either go back all in or all out. These kids ain't stupid, some have degrees in Police Law a little Covid cough ?, now let's see ......double maths ? (Clears throat)
Thats what it was with my lad cough came on and a little sniffle asked if he wanted to go to school he said yeah so sent him he must have been in school a matter of half hour before headteacher was ringing saying due to government guidelines any child feeling unwell has to be sent home and tested this was Friday just gone.

Put his symptoms in on 119 or something simular said to ring GP never bothered by Monday morning a test had come through post could tell it was school that sent it out as every letter comes with mine and missus name on.
We didn't even order a test as was docing him up on calpol and upped his blue and brown inhalors and hey presto by Tuesday he's right as rain running round ect rang school explained he's fine ect there reply was need to wait for results ffs.
My other 2 kids have had to have time off aswell but school has remained open can't really complain as they've been in school during lockdown aswell but 100% see your point with kids
 

loncell

Registered
Were a social beast and especially kids at school. You can't suddenly expect them to keep apart after months of p8ssin around at home.
 

teddybloat

TK Veteran
I fear we are suffering due to a base rate fallacy.

We should not be encouraging people to randomly get tested unless they have symptoms or been in contact with someone with sympotoms

Let's take a high risk area with 100 in 100k rate.

Hancock estimates false positives to be around 1%

Test 100k randomly


You will get 1100 positive tests back.

Only 100 of those people will have covid, the rest will be false positives.

Gets worse in a place like Norwich with 20 in 100k.

Randomly test 100k


You will get 1020 positive results.

20 people will have covid

1000 will be false positives.

We do not need to be testing so many people.
 
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